ENTERPRISE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

The article examines the essence and features of enterprise development planning taking into account systemic uncertainty. The concept of planning as an optimization tool and the importance of its scenario development for the sake of avoiding bankruptcy formed the basis of a model that combines stochastic and deterministic factors of enterprise development under indirect management based on performance criteria. In the conditions of unpredictability of external forecasts and conceptual uncertainty of the internal environment, scenario approaches with trial elements of short-term planning can be the basis for making management decisions. The purpose of the article is to study the mechanism of enterprise development planning in conditions of uncertainty. In order to achieve the set goal, the essence of enterprise development planning is clarified in the work – it is the construction of step-by-step stages, which are determined by relevant scenarios and are oriented towards the achievement of operational goals. Today's macroeconomic conditions in the country are characterized by a high degree of uncertainty due to objective reasons. Moreover, the internal environment of the enterprise acquires such features of uncertainty. Therefore, in the current situation, it is critically important to combine specific plans for the company's future actions with a flexible response to external events. As a tool for such a combination, the work proposes to use a scenario approach to coordinate project actions and reactions. This approach allows developers to combine different perspectives and behaviors with attention to detail and tuning to maximize the experience of individual performers. The scripting tool is reusable, scalable, abstractable, and classifiable. Its use facilitates communication and increases the effectiveness of planning in the medium term. Taking into account the conditions of uncertainty of the country's economic development, the paper highlights the importance of planning at the enterprise as a utility effect, which is determined by the planning of enterprise development scenarios. The main stages of enterprise development planning in conditions of uncertainty are proposed. As a result, it is proposed to restore the development of existing enterprises and help the declining enterprises to survive in conditions of uncertainty.